How long a losing streak is normal
17%
chance of hitting 8 losses in a row at least once, somewhere in 200 trades at a 55% win rate.
At this win rate, a run of 6 losses is more likely than not to show up in 200 trades.
| Losses in a row | Chance it happens |
|---|---|
| 1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 99.3% |
| 5 | 88.0% |
| 6 | 60.2% |
| 7 | 33.4% |
| 8 | 16.5% |
| 9 | 7.7% |
| 10 | 3.5% |
| 11 | 1.6% |
| 12 | 0.7% |
A run of losses is the most common reason people decide a method has stopped working. Before deciding that, it is worth knowing how often a run of that length turns up anyway.
The number below assumes only two things: that each trade is independent of the last, and that the win rate stays fixed. It does not assume the method has an edge, and it does not assume it does not — the win rate is whatever you type in.
It is computed exactly, by walking through the trades and tracking the chance of currently being on a run of each length. There is no simulation and no random seed, so the same inputs always give the same answer.
So how are traders reporting their results right now — and which combinations are they reporting?
Report a trade you closed
Style
Direction
Signal
Pair
Risk:reward
How it ended
Still to pick: Style, Direction, Signal, Pair, Risk:reward
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This is a calculation, not advice. It takes the numbers you enter as given and reports what follows from them.