Tools
The parts of this that are arithmetic rather than opinion. Each one takes your assumptions as given and shows what follows from them.
How long a losing streak is normal
Work out the chance of hitting a run of losses at a given win rate, over a given number of trades. Exact, not a simulation.
What the spread takes out of the account each year
Turn a spread in pips into a percentage of the account per year, from your stop distance, risk per trade and how often you trade.
Position size and the chance of hitting your drawdown limit
The chance of eventually losing a given share of the account, from win rate, reward:risk and risk per trade.